Germany confronts complex crime landscape amid Oktoberfest threat and political unrest

Germany is grappling with a series of high-profile crimes and a documented surge in political violence, creating a complex and anxious public discourse around national safety, even as experts maintain the country is fundamentally secure.

The most recent incident saw Munich's world-famous Oktoberfest fairgrounds temporarily shut down on october 1, 2025, following a bomb threat. The threat was linked to a deadly explosion in a residential area of northern Munich earlier that day, where a 57-year-old German man is believed to have committed suicide by detonating an explosive device. The blast also injured his 81-year-old mother and 21-year-old daughter. According to the Associated Press, a letter found near the scene contained vague threats referencing the festival, prompting police to evacuate and search the grounds as a precaution.

This event comes amid a backdrop of rising political tensions and security concerns. New data for 2024 revealed a record surge in politically motivated crimes, which increased by 40.2% to 84,172 incidents—the highest number since Germany began collecting this data in 2001. A Reuters report noted that violent political crimes rose by 15%, with far-right violence being a significant driver, responsible for 45% of injuries in such attacks. Officials attribute the spike to tightly contested elections, the conflict in Gaza, and deepening political polarization.

Further underscoring the tense political climate, a former aide to a far-right German lawmaker was convicted of espionage on september 30, 2025. Jian Guo, a German citizen, was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison for working with Chinese intelligence. He was found guilty of passing sensitive information from the European Parliament and spying on Chinese dissidents in Germany.

In response to emerging threats, the German government is also taking proactive security measures. Following a series of disruptive drone incursions in Denmark, German interior minister Alexander Dobrindt announced that the nation would implement new defenses against the "high threat" posed by drones, including a potential revision of aviation security laws to permit the armed forces to shoot them down.

While these incidents dominate headlines, they exist alongside a more nuanced reality. Criminologist Dietrich Oberwittler of the Max Planck institute has stated that despite high-profile events, Germany is "principally a safe country," pointing out that some categories of crime have significantly decreased over the last few decades.

However, specific areas remain a persistent concern. Attacks against migrants and refugees reached their highest level since 2016, with 2,378 reported incidents in 2023, nearly doubling from the previous year. This disturbing trend has been linked to the rising success of the far-right AfD party and heightened anti-migrant rhetoric. Separately, domestic burglaries remain a stubborn problem, with approximately 90,000 incidents recorded in 2024. While the number of break-ins held steady, the financial damage climbed to 350 million euros as thieves increasingly target high-value electronics.

Ultimately, the perception of crime in Germany is being shaped by two competing narratives: the long-term data suggesting overall safety and the immediate, alarming nature of recent violent acts, politically motivated crimes, and persistent threats to property and vulnerable populations.